During the 2010 midterm elections, a group of researchers found that Twitter posts could pretty accurately predict who win congressional elections. Although the social networking site has been around since 2006, political scientists have done little to tie Twitter to political behavior.
In any election, the two major party candidates are likely to mentioned on Twitter. However, this article finds that the candidate who is mentioned more on the social networking service is likely to receive more votes. The effect is equal to 1,035 votes for every percentage Payday Loans increase in Twitter mentions over the other candidate.
While itâs nice to see this quantified, the findings are not surprising. Most congressional elections are not competitive. In 2010, 86% of officeholders in Congress were re-elected to office. In terms of mentions on Twitter, I would expect incumbents to receive far more tweets than challengers.
This article, âMore Tweets, More Votes: Social media as a quantitative indicator of political behaviorâ was presented at the American Sociological Associationâs Annual Meeting in New York, NY on August 10-13, 2013. (Link)